APC May Scrap Consensus Plan in Flashpoint States Amid Rising Tensions

By Mark Agwu · Published June 4, 2026

Nigeria’s political landscape is already heating up ahead of the 2027 general elections, and at the center of the unfolding drama is the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Fresh developments indicate that the party may abandon its long-standing consensus strategy in several “flashpoint states,” opting instead for direct primaries as internal divisions deepen.

This shift, if confirmed, signals not just a tactical adjustment but a deeper struggle for control within the party struggle that could shape the outcome of the 2027 elections.

Consensus Strategy Under Pressure

For years, the APC has relied heavily on consensus arrangements to select candidates for key elections. The strategy, often broken by party leaders and influential stakeholders, has been praised for reducing internal conflict and presenting a united front.

Under Nigeria’s Electoral Act, political parties are permitted to adopt either consensus candidacy or direct primaries in selecting their flagbearers. (Punch Newspapers)

However, as preparations for 2027 intensify, cracks are beginning to appear in this approach.

Recent reports indicate that while consensus remains the party’s preferred option, it is increasingly becoming difficult to enforce in states where multiple powerful aspirants are vying for the same ticket.

Flashpoint States and Internal Rivalries

The APC is currently grappling with unresolved succession battles in several states, particularly those where incumbent governors are nearing the end of their constitutionally allowed tenure.

States such as Nasarawa, Kwara, Adamawa, Yobe, and Bauchi have emerged as major flashpoints, with negotiations over consensus candidates reportedly stalled.

In these states, competing political heavyweights, many with strong grassroots support and independent structures, have made it difficult for party leaders to impose a single candidate.

A party insider captured the dilemma succinctly: consensus cannot be forced where interests sharply diverge.

Direct Primaries as a Plan B

Faced with mounting disagreements, the APC is now considering a fallback option: direct primarily.

Under this system, all registered party members in a state participate in selecting candidates, making the process more open but also more competitive and unpredictable.

Party sources say this approach may be adopted in states where consensus negotiations fail, to prevent internal rebellion and defections.

The calculation is straightforward while consensus promotes unity, forced consensus can trigger deeper fractures if stakeholders feel excluded.

The Role of Governors and Power Brokers

One of the defining features of the APC’s internal politics is the influence of incumbent governors. In many states, governors are expected to play a decisive role in determining their successors.

Sources within the party indicate that governors are being given priority in nominating candidates, given their understanding of local political dynamics.

However, this arrangement has not gone uncontested. In several states, party stakeholders and rival aspirants have resisted what they perceive as attempts at imposition.

This tension between centralized control and grassroots democracy lies at the heart of the current crisis.

South-West: A Contrast in Stability

Interestingly, not all regions are experiencing the same level of turmoil.

In the South-West, the APC appears to have made significant progress in adopting consensus candidates for key governorship races in Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo states.

Names such as Obafemi Hamzat, Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi), and Sharafadeen Alli have reportedly emerged as preferred candidates following consultations with party leaders.

However, even in this relatively stable zone, dissent has not been eliminated, with some aspirants and stakeholders expressing reservations about the process.

Bauchi: A Case Study in Uncertainty

Bauchi State exemplifies the complexity of the APC’s internal struggles.

The state is currently witnessing intense political maneuvering, with multiple high-profile figures reportedly interested in the governorship ticket.

Compounding the situation are speculations about potential defections and shifting alliances, which have made it difficult for both the APC and opposition parties to plan effectively.

The uncertainty has turned Bauchi into one of the most closely watched battlegrounds ahead of 2027.

Timeline Pressure and INEC Deadlines

Adding urgency to the situation is the timetable set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Political parties are required to conduct their primaries between April and May 2026 and submit their list of candidates within a stipulated deadline.

With the clock ticking, the APC is under pressure to resolve internal disputes quickly to avoid missing critical deadlines.

The party is expected to unveil its timetable for primaries imminently, signaling the start of a decisive phase in its preparations.

Risks of Abandoning Consensus

While switching to direct primaries may appear to be a pragmatic solution, it is not without risks.

Direct primaries can be expensive and logistically complex, often requiring extensive coordination across large membership bases. They can also expose deep divisions within the party, potentially weakening its overall electoral strength.

On the other hand, maintaining a flawed consensus process could lead to defections, anti-party activities, and even legal challenges.

The APC is therefore walking a tightrope - balancing the need for unity with the demands of internal democracy.

Implications for the 2027 Elections

The internal dynamics within the APC are likely to have far-reaching implications for the 2027 elections.

As Nigeria’s ruling party, its ability to manage internal conflicts will play a crucial role in determining its electoral prospects.

A fractured APC could provide an opening for opposition parties to capitalize on internal discontent. Conversely, a successful transition to a more inclusive candidate selection process could strengthen the party’s legitimacy and appeal.

A Test for Party Cohesion

At its core, the debate over consensus versus direct primaries is a test of the APC’s cohesion and adaptability.

The party’s leadership, under its national chairman, must navigate competing interests, manage expectations, and maintain discipline within its ranks.

The outcome of this internal struggle will not only shape candidate selection but also define the APC’s identity as a political organization.

Conclusion

As the countdown to 2027 continues, the APC finds itself at a critical crossroads. The possible abandonment of its consensus strategy in flashpoint states reflects deeper tensions that could redefine the party’s future.

Whether the shift to direct primaries will resolve these tensions or exacerbate them remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that the battle lines for 2027 have already been drawn, and the real contest may begin long before Nigerians head to the polls.